Almost pulled off a soft landing—then the pilot got hijacked? That’s the vibe heading into Powell’s 10 AM mic check. Futures keep pricing a fairy-tale flood of cuts, but the minutes just said inflation is the bigger risk than jobs. Translation: hold the line. And yes, that “good afternoon”—even at 10—already sounds hawkish. Tie watch? Purple tie, markets die. Red tie, sell on sight. Either way, the casino opens on schedule.

Here’s the setup: a green head-fake, then Monday whiplash. We’ve seen this movie—December 17 proved one careful paragraph can take the market down hard. Why would he be dovish now? He clawed back credibility the slow, painful way; he’s not handing it back for short-term cheers. Cuts feel like a 2025 story if wage stickiness, tariffs, and weak investment keep the job market wheezing. A token quarter-point won’t cure that.

Quants will flip the switch, BTC will sketch that dream parabola, and everyone else will debate whether a greeting can be hawkish. Spoiler: tone matters when liquidity thins out. Buckle up, keep dry powder, and remember—real soft landings are quiet. This one? Not so much.